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Quantum Computing Overhype and Practical Failures: A Critical Assessment

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Quantum Computing Overhype and Practical Failures: A Critical Assessment

Clip title: Quantum Computing Failure Now Obvious Author / channel: Sabine Hossenfelder URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DX_oIQ-tA6M

Summary

Sabine Hossenfelder’s video, “Quantum Computing Failures,” critically examines the persistent optimism surrounding quantum computing, particularly contrasting grand predictions with the current reality of its limited practical applications. While quantum computing has been touted as a transformative technology, Hossenfelder argues that the industry’s progress has been significantly overhyped, leading to a disconnect between scientific demonstrations and commercial utility.

A key point of contention is the concept of “quantum advantage,” which refers to a quantum computer performing a calculation infeasibly long for a classical computer. Hossenfelder highlights recent claims of quantum advantage by entities like IBM and the University of Chicago, but points out that these demonstrations often involve “random sampling” — calculations with no known practical use. Citing philosopher Amit Hagar’s research, she explains that historically, most such claims within the NISQ (Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum) era have either been classically reproduced, shown to be classically tractable, or dismissed by “simulability theorems” within 18 months of their announcement. Hagar succinctly states that demonstrating a circuit works is merely “competent diagnostic engineering,” which has been conflated with “computational advantage” to drive funding rather than actual productive investigation.

Hossenfelder further illustrates the pattern of failed commercial promises by reviewing numerous past predictions. Google in 2017 anticipated “short-term returns” within five years, while IBM in 2018 foresaw the “dawn of the commercial quantum era” and “business advantage” from NISQ computers. IONQ’s 2021 annual report expected quantum machine learning to be the first broadly available application in the NISQ era. Even Kipu Quantum in 2023 projected NISQ advantage for industry use cases within 18-36 months. Financial analysts like the Boston Consulting Group in 2019 predicted a market value of $2-5 billion by 2024. All these, Hossenfelder emphatically concludes, “didn’t happen,” with actual value to end-users proving to be “nil.”

In conclusion, Hossenfelder asserts that the idea of NISQ computers having commercial uses was “obviously bullshit” from the start. She suggests that the only currently profitable quantum application is “forecasting profitable quantum applications.” Despite being labeled pessimistic, she considers herself a realist, predicting that actual commercially viable quantum computing is still decades away, with uses that will be extremely niche and limited, certainly not a multi-billion dollar market. She also brings up Demis Hassabis’s argument that highly regular quantum processes can likely be modeled by AI on conventional computers, further questioning the unique commercial advantage of current quantum hardware.

Video Description & Links

Description

Quantum computing was supposed to be the next big thing, and for years the companies building it kept promising commercial payoffs were just around the corner and possible already with small, noisy devices (NISQs). Google, IBM, IonQ, they all gave dates. None of them delivered. So why is the industry more optimistic today than ever? Let’s take a look.

science sciencenews technology quantumcomputing

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Tags

hossenfelder, science with sabine, science humour, NISQ, quantum advantage, IBM quantum, IonQ, Amit Hagar, quantum machine learning, qubits, quantum hype, quantum computing explained, quantum computing 2026, science news, physics news, technology update, technology news, quantum physics, Sabrina

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