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Australia's Long-Range Climate and Water Outlook: October-December 2026

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Australia’s Long-Range Climate and Water Outlook: October-December 2026

Clip title: Climate and water long-range forecast, issued 1 October 2026 Author / channel: Bureau of Meteorology URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0eHXbQ9D88

Summary

The Bureau of Meteorology’s long-range forecast for October to December 2026 details expected rainfall and temperature trends across Australia, highlighting a period of varied weather conditions with a notable leaning towards warmer temperatures. Climatologist Caitlin Minney presented the outlook, emphasizing regional differences in precipitation and the widespread likelihood of above-average temperatures.

September 2026 served as a precursor to these trends, registering as Australia’s second warmest September on record, driven by dominant high-pressure systems. This resulted in warmer-than-average temperatures across most of the continent, with specific daily records broken in southern locations like Albany, WA (31.8°C), and Parafield, SA (35.6°C). Rainfall patterns were varied, with above-average precipitation in the western interior and far north, but below-average conditions across the southwest and much of the eastern half, particularly the Murray-Darling Basin, which experienced its second driest September on record. These dry and warm conditions led to elevated fire danger and bushfires in Queensland and New South Wales. The 2026 snow season in alpine regions also saw record warmth, with much of the precipitation falling as rain rather than snow, leading to an unprecedented zero snow depth at Spencer’s Creek, NSW, for the first time in September since 1954. Soil moisture generally decreased across eastern and southwestern Australia, while inland southern regions maintained wetter-than-average soils, impacting streamflow which was largely below average in the south and east.

Looking ahead to October-December, the rainfall forecast indicates a significant divide: above-average rainfall is predicted for much of Australia’s western half, extending into parts of Queensland and New South Wales later in the season. Conversely, below-average rainfall is expected in the far north and southeast. October specifically is anticipated to have a drier start for northern Australia. Simultaneously, both daytime and nighttime temperatures are very likely to be above average across almost the entire continent. This translates to an increased chance of unusually warm days, particularly across the southern two-thirds of Australia and the southeast, and a very high likelihood of unusually warm nights nationwide for the remainder of the year.

The overarching climate drivers influencing this forecast include warming sea surface temperatures around the Australian region, which further increases the risk of marine heatwaves, especially in the southeast. El Niño is expected to strengthen further, likely peaking in late spring or summer, and a brief positive Indian Ocean Dipole event also remains a possibility. In summary, Australia faces an increased risk of heatwaves and elevated fire danger over the coming warmer months, coupled with significant regional variations in rainfall, indicating a period requiring close monitoring of weather and water resources.

Video Description & Links

Description

The Bureau’s long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow, and temperature for the months ahead.

See http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ for more detail.

Tags

Bureau of Meteorology, BOM, The Bureau, Australian Government, Australian Bureau Of Meteorology, Weather, Climate, Australian climate, Meteorology

URLs

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